- Israel and the US expect a potential Iranian attack following a strike on Iran's embassy in Syria.
- The incident has escalated the long-standing proxy war between Israel and Iran.
- Despite threats of a direct attack on Israel, Iran won't want a war involving the US.
Both Israel and the US are on edge about a potential Iranian attack on Israel, but it's unlikely that threats from Iran's leader will live up to the rhetoric.
Earlier this month, a strike on Iran's embassy in Damascus resulted in the death of a senior figure in the al-Quds force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, alongside six other Iranian military officers.
Israel has not publicly acknowledged responsibility for the strike, but Iran is clearly holding it accountable.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said this week that Israel "must be punished and it shall be."
Khamenei's declaration that Israel should be punished, along with his saying that an "evil regime made a mistake," hinted at a raising of tensions between the countries.
A long-standing proxy war
The airstrike on April 1 marked an escalation in the long-standing proxy war between Israel and Iran.
Iran has supported anti-Israel militant groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, while Israel has conducted strikes against Iranian allies in Syria.
Israel views Iran as an existential threat, having long sought to prevent the country from building a nuclear arsenal. Iran has previously vowed to wipe Israel off the map.
The Iran embassy incident intensified those historic tensions to a fever pitch.
Indeed, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that US intelligence reports suggested an attack was coming soon.
Yet such a move would risk causing a full-out war.
The Journal said that it was unclear if Iran intended to launch missiles onto Israeli soil or use regional proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis in Yemen.
On Thursday, it reported that Israel was preparing for a direct attack by Iran within 48 hours.
If ballistic missiles or drones do target Israel, Israel would respond, and the US has made it clear it would support it. President Joe Biden vowed "ironclad" support for Israel, emphasizing the US commitment to Israel's security.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that his country was ready to respond directly to any attack.
"Whoever harms us, we will harm them," he said. "We are prepared to meet all of the security needs of the State of Israel, both defensively and offensively."
By late Thursday, it appeared that Iranian officials were toning down some of their rhetoric.
According to Axios, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told Germany's foreign minister that Iran would respond in an "appropriate," albeit limited, way.
Reuters also reported that Iran had signaled to Washington that it wanted to act in a way that would avoid a major escalation.
Iran is facing a dilemma: It needs to maintain credibility while also exercising restraint to avoid drawing it into a conflict with the US that it would likely lose.
In the past, Tehran-backed militants have targeted US forces in response to Israel's actions, as Business Insider's Jake Epstein noted.
But experts on the region don't believe that it is prepared to go a step further, by sending rockets and drones to attack Israeli soil.
Iran has other worries, too. There's hyperinflation in the country, civil unrest, and a military that the Atlantic Council noted is not truly competitive with Israel, especially with its US backing.
"It doesn't possess the necessary power, willingness, and ability to engage in a conflict with the potential to escalate into a full-scale regional war with Israel,'" wrote Middle East analyst Saeid Jafari in an article for the Atlantic Council.
Ali Sadrzadeh, an analyst on the region, echoed these points in an interview with BBC News. He said that "Iran is not capable of a big confrontation with Israel given its military capabilities and economic and political situation."
Sadrzadeh added: "But it will have to come up with a response for domestic consumption and to protect its reputation among its regional allies."
After the US killing of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, Khameini vowed "severe revenge." Iran's President Hassan Rouhani made a similar pledge.
But the actual response was missile attacks on two airfields in Iraq that were housing US troops, causing injuries but no fatalities.
Skirmishes like these, outside Israel and possibly in Lebanon, are plausible in relation to this latest incident. As history has shown, Iran may be prepared to flex its muscles, but it's unlikely to get into a fight it would probably lose.